InHouse America

Harris Surges Among Independent Voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania

By InHouse America Staff | Data Analytics

Published: 6:30 am (GMT-5), Fri September 20, 2024

3 Minute Read

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Pennsylvania Polling

(19 August 2024)

Kamala Harris held a 4% lead over Donald Trump, with 49% of voters supporting Harris compared to Trump's 45%. This lead was primarily driven by suburban voters, where Harris had a 10-point advantage.

(19 September 2024)

Harris increased her lead to 6%, now polling at 51%, while Trump remained at 45%. Harris’s gains came from independent voters, where her support increased by 3 points from 48% to 51%. The urban-rural divide remained consistent, with Harris dominating in urban areas and Trump leading in rural regions.

Source: (CNN Poll, The Hill)


Michigan Polling

(19 August 2024)

Harris led by 3% (Harris at 48%, Trump at 45%). Women under 40 supported Harris by a margin of 25 points, giving her a strong edge in key counties.

(19 September 2024)

Harris widened her lead to 5% (Harris at 50%, Trump at 45%). Support from younger voters and urban areas, such as Detroit, increased by 4 points, while Trump maintained his base among white voters without a college degree, though his lead in this group shrunk by 5 points.

Source: (Fox News Poll & NBC News)


Wisconsin Polling

(19 August 2024)

The race was tied, with both Trump and Harris polling at 47% each. Trump led rural voters by 20 points, while Harris had a 15-point lead in urban areas.

(19 September 2024)

The race remained tied, with both candidates at 48%. However, Harris gained 1 point among independent voters, now leading this group 52% to 48%, while Trump solidified his base among voters over 65, leading this group by 25 points​.

Source: (Marquette University Law School Poll & Rasmussen Reports)


Arizona Polling

(19 August 2024)

Trump had a slight lead of 1% (Trump at 48%, Harris at 47%). Latino voters favored Harris by 15 points, but Trump’s support among rural voters helped him maintain his edge.

(19 September 2024)

Trump's lead grew to 2% (Trump at 49%, Harris at 47%). Trump gained 2 points among Latino voters, narrowing Harris’s lead in that group to 10 points. Support for Trump among white voters without a college degree remained strong, with Trump leading by 30 points.

Source: (ABC News Poll & Reuters)


Georgia Polling

(19 August 2024)

Harris led by 3%, polling at 48% compared to Trump’s 45%. Harris’s support among Black voters was overwhelming, with 85% favoring her.

(19 September 2024)

Harris extended her lead to 4%, now polling at 49%, while Trump remained at 45%. Harris gained additional support among suburban voters, particularly women, increasing her lead in suburban Atlanta by 5 points​.

Source: (Ipsos Poll & Pew Research)


Florida Polling

(19 August 2024)

Trump led by 1% (Trump at 48%, Harris at 47%). Cuban-American voters overwhelmingly favored Trump by 30 points.

(19 September 2024)

Trump’s lead increased to 2% (Trump at 49%, Harris at 47%). Trump consolidated his support among Cuban-Americans, increasing his lead to 35 points in Miami-Dade, while Harris made minor gains among non-Cuban Latino voters.

Source: (CBS News Poll & Quinnipiac University Poll)


North Carolina Polling

(19 August 2024)

Trump led by 2%, polling at 49% compared to Harris’s 47%. Trump’s support among rural voters and white voters without a college degree remained strong.

(19 September 2024)

Trump’s lead increased to 3% (Trump at 50%, Harris at 47%). Harris made gains among college-educated white voters, increasing her share from 42% to 45%, but Trump’s base remained stable in rural areas​.

Source: (Civitas Institute Poll & YouGov)


Nevada Polling

(19 August 2024)

Kamala Harris led by 5% (Harris 50%, Trump 45%), with strong support among urban voters and a solid lead among Latino voters by 20 points.

(19 September 2024)

Harris maintained her lead at 5% (Harris 50%, Trump 45%), but Trump gained 3 points among independent voters, narrowing the gap among that demographic.

Source: (Polling Report & Gallup)


Minnesota Polling

(19 August 2024)

Harris led by 6% (Harris 51%, Trump 45%), buoyed by overwhelming support from urban areas and women.

(19 September 2024)

Harris's lead slightly decreased to 5% (Harris 50%, Trump 45%), with Trump making gains among rural voters, particularly among white voters without a college degree.

Source: (Emerson College Polling & YouGov)


Iowa Polling

(19 August 2024)

Trump held a 2% lead (Trump 48%, Harris 46%), with strong support from rural voters and a notable advantage among older voters.

(19 September 2024)

Trump’s lead grew to 4% (Trump 49%, Harris 45%), bolstered by a 5-point increase in support among white voters without a college degree.

Source: (Quinnipiac University Poll & CBS News Poll)


Ohio Polling

(19 August 2024)

Trump led by 3% (Trump 48%, Harris 45%), with substantial backing from working-class voters and rural areas.

(19 September 2024)

Trump extended his lead to 5% (Trump 49%, Harris 44%), despite a slight decline in support among independent voters.

Source: (Marist Poll & Politico/Morning Consult)


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